Copper and Aluminum Rebound with Reduced Volume, Awaiting Tomorrow's Tariff Decision Outcome [Institutional Commentary]

Published: Apr 1, 2025 18:29

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【Futures Market】During the night session, SHFE copper opened lower and continued to decline. It rose in the early session, reclaimed the 80,000 mark in the midday session, and continued to rebound in the afternoon. The most-traded May contract closed at 80,430, up 0.14%, with a noticeable decrease in trading volume, while the total open interest remained basically flat compared to the previous session. SHFE aluminum followed a similar trading rhythm as SHFE copper. The most-traded May contract closed at 20,525, down 0.05%, with both total trading volume and open interest slightly decreasing. Meanwhile, alumina fluctuated downward, hitting a new low during the session. The most-traded May contract closed at 2,951, down 0.94%.

【Analysis】Today, SHFE copper rebounded after hitting a low, but the reduced trading volume limited the significance of the price movement. Attention should be paid to whether the US government will implement "reciprocal tariffs" tomorrow. Today, gold prices hit a new historical high, and the gold-to-copper ratio continued to rise, reflecting strong market risk aversion sentiment. It is advisable to wait for the "shoe to drop."

【Valuation】Copper: Neutral to slightly high Aluminum: Neutral

【Risk】Macro policies fall short of expectations

(Source: China Fortune Futures)

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